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Mechanical Engineering at Northern Arizona University

Flagstaff, AZ · Public · Bachelor's Degree

DegreeOutlook Score (Base Case) — assumes in-state tuition

Optimistic

Base Case

Pessimistic

Earnings $63,252/yr (-10% vs median)

AI Risk Very High (53% exposed)

Job Market Large (58,100 openings/yr)

ROI 16.2x earnings multiple (7.1x out-of-state)

Ranked #158 of 320 Mechanical Engineering programs Top 50%

How AI Changes the Outlook

Three scenarios based on how aggressively AI disrupts the career paths available to Mechanical Engineering graduates.

	Optimistic No Disruption	Base Case Gradual AI	Pessimistic Aggressive AI
10-Year Earnings	$862K	$822K	$704K
Earnings Multiple (In-State)	17.0x	16.2x	13.9x
Earnings Multiple (Out-of-State)	7.5x	7.1x	6.1x
Probability of Field Employment	80%	71%	50%
DegreeOutlook Score	71	70	68

10-Year Earnings Projection

*Year 1 uses actual reported earnings. Scenarios diverge as AI impact compounds over time.

4-Year Tuition, In-State (Sticker)

$50,608

Out-of-state: $115,600 (7.1x ROI)

4-Year Net Price (After Aid)

$59,688

-18% less than sticker · See by income

Median Debt at Graduation

$23,413

4.4 months of Year 1 earnings

Reported Earnings (5 Year)

$89,027

41% growth from Year 1

Program Analysis

First-year earnings of $63,252 track close to the $70,527 national median for Mechanical Engineering programs. This is a middle-of-the-road outcome on salary alone.

Every dollar of in-state tuition returns an estimated 16.2x in decade earnings — an exceptional ratio that places this among the highest-ROI Mechanical Engineering programs nationally.

Some AI exposure exists in Mechanical Engineering's typical career paths, with 53% of job tasks potentially affected. The pessimistic scenario still projects solid returns, with a 18% gap from the optimistic case.

At $23,413 in median debt against $63,252 in first-year earnings, graduates can expect to clear their loan balance in under six months of full earnings.

At #158 of 320 Mechanical Engineering programs, Northern Arizona University scores above the median — competitive but not a standout.

Earnings grow from $63,252 to $89,027 over five years — a 41% increase that's moderate and in line with typical career progression.

About Northern Arizona University

Northern Arizona University has a 91% acceptance rate, making it broadly accessible, with 23,041 students enrolled in Flagstaff, AZ.

See all programs and financial aid at Northern Arizona University →

Top Career Paths

Architectural and engineering managers $167,740/yr

Aerospace engineers $134,830/yr

Engineering teachers, postsecondary $106,120/yr

View all 5 career paths with salary ranges and AI risk →

Compare & Explore

Mechanical Engineering at Other Schools

Other Majors at Northern Arizona University

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the DegreeOutlook Score for Mechanical Engineering at Northern Arizona University?

This program scores 70/100 — placing it among the stronger programs for Mechanical Engineering nationally. The score reflects above-average earnings, manageable AI risk, and solid financial return.

Will AI replace Mechanical Engineering careers?

With 53% of typical job tasks exposed to AI, this is one of the higher-risk fields. Our pessimistic scenario projects $704,134 in decade earnings vs $862,017 in the optimistic case — a meaningful gap.

Scores use College Scorecard earnings, BLS employment projections, and AI task-exposure research. See full methodology →